What would a shut off of Russian gas mean for Europe?

The Kremlin has threatened to cease sending fuel to “unfriendly” nations – together with all these in Europe – except they pay in roubles.

Germany and a few others have dominated out rouble funds, resulting in the prospect of pipes being minimize off.

Using evaluation by Brussels-based assume tank Bruegel, we discover the affect and choices for Europe.

What affect wouldn’t it have within the UK?

The UK will get solely a small quantity of its fuel from Russia, with the lion’s share coming from UK oil fields and Norway.

But costs will nonetheless rise right here as British vitality suppliers compete with different European corporations to purchase UK fuel.

For now, households ought to be shielded from the volatility of the market by Ofgem’s value cap – regardless of a large rise that got here into pressure on Friday.

It is early days, however latest evaluation from US financial institution Goldman Sachs urged that the worth cap might be hiked by one other 90% in October if Russian fuel flows to Europe finish.

Which nations can be the worst hit by the strangling of Russian fuel provides?

It’s not a tough and quick rule, however the additional east nations are, the extra they depend on Russian fuel. Germany and Italy can be critically hit, as would a number of different nations within the east of the continent.

Who would get off the lightest, and might they assist their neighbours?

Spain and Portugal can be much less impacted. Ports on the Iberian Peninsula are in a position to import 40 terawatt hours (TWh) of liquid pure fuel (LNG) from ships each month. The peninsula solely consumes 30 TWh a month.

But getting that extra fuel to the remainder of Europe is extra sophisticated; the pipes that join the world to the continent are solely in a position to carry 5 TWh of fuel each month.

Gas that’s imported to France is handled otherwise to present it an uncommon scent to assist individuals detect fuel leaks higher. This means getting fuel from France to different nations is extra sophisticated.

There can also be a fear that nations won’t be keen to co-operate. Some EU nations have extra fuel saved than others and so they could refuse to export it to their neighbours.

How a lot fuel does Europe retailer?

Gas storage websites within the EU had been round 26.4% full on Tuesday this week, in response to knowledge from AGSI, a mission run by the union.

This is under the typical on the identical day over the past 10 years, at 36.3%, however storage was decrease in 2018 (17.8%) and 2017 (25.8%).

What might the affect be?

In January, consultants at Bruegel mentioned EU nations might need to take “emergency measures” earlier than the tip of winter if fuel is minimize off.

They added: “Until the summer, the EU would likely be able to survive large-scale disruption to Russian gas supplies, based on a combination of increased LNG imports and demand-side measures such as industrial gas curtailments.

“But, should a halt of Russian gas be prolonged into the next winters, it would be more difficult for the EU to cope.”

Could Europe get extra fuel from elsewhere?

In concept, a further 1,100 TWh of LNG might be imported to EU ports, in comparison with what was imported in 2021 (730 TWh).

The EU’s pipelines with Norway might additionally technically carry 200 TWh greater than they did final yr, whereas North Africa and Azerbaijan might provide an additional 450 TWh between them.

Together, all these choices might be sufficient to exchange the 1,700 TWh that Russia provided in 2021. The UK additionally has house in its pipelines to ship one other 400 TWh to the EU.

But this doesn’t imply that the provision is there.

The fuel will should be pumped out of the bottom within the US, the Middle East and elsewhere, and loaded onto a restricted variety of ships.

Sellers will then want to decide on Europe as their vacation spot above Asia and the Americas.

What might Europe do to scale back the quantity of fuel it wants?

Around 900 TWh of fuel was burned to supply electrical energy final yr; a few of this might be changed by oil.

If Europe is fortunate, the climate may turbocharge wind and photo voltaic farms. Germany might resolve to delay the closure of its nuclear vegetation and decommissioned coal vegetation might be introduced again into service if they’re workable.

Heavy business corresponding to metal, aluminium and silicon producers might shut or gradual manufacturing.

Governments might also must step in to inform individuals to show down their thermostats.

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